Here's Scott's thoughts... "The first question is, will you ever get it putting? And if you can get it putting, that's a good indication that about half of your shot pattern is probably going to be in pretty good shape." That's the first filter. We dropped a ball at 100 yards to compare. Looked like an easy wedge. Tour pros from 100 yards in the fairway still average about 2.8 strokes to hole out. Now compare that to being greenside. From 30 yards out in the rough, tour pros average about 2.6 strokes. From a greenside bunker at 10 yards, it's about 2.5. The difference between "easy wedge distance" and "just off the green" is only about two-tenths to three-tenths of a stroke. So if you drive it up near the green... even if you miss into a bunker or the rough... your expected score is barely worse than the guy standing over a "perfect" wedge from 100 yards. And your upside is better. Play the hole 2-4 times in a tournament you want to give yourself the best mathematical chance to get to the lowest overall average score. And the pin position doesn't change the decision as much as you'd think. Sometimes the pin favors the left miss. Sometimes the right. Either way, the overall expected score from up close still beats the wedge from 100. "So your argument is regardless of the pin, we're still going to send it?" "The math works out." The one thing that flips it? Hazards. Scott was clear about this. "If instead of a bunker here, this was a lake... it's totally different." So what's the mindset to remember? I asked him if people go for too many drivable par 4s or lay up too often? "Lay up too often." Want access to the Decade app plus all of Scott's in-depth training?You can get your membership here, and Scott did a very generous 30% off discount code. Use code CORDIE
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